Stress test of the democratic institutions

Methodology of the stress test

A stress test is used particularly in the areas of finance and protection of critical public infrastructure and consists of subjecting a system or organisation to extreme or unusual conditions in order to assess their level of preparedness. In banking supervision, for example, it serves to evaluate the extent to which banks are prepared to counter financial and economic crises.

Applied to democratic institutions, this means confronting Luxembourgʼs institutions with the hypothesis of the accession to power of an authoritarian party that tends towards the concentration of power and the establishment of a closed society in which the principles of freedom, rationality and universality are increasingly suppressed.

The objective of this stress test is to detect vulnerabilities and, if necessary, to redress them in order to prevent the democratic order in Luxembourg from becoming an illiberal regime.

Working hypotheses

The study is based on three working hypotheses, each centred on the rise of a party with illiberal tendencies to power following legislative elections. These hypotheses allow for questions to be raised about the scope of action available to a government with illiberal tendencies in three different scenarios:

• Following legislative elections, a party with illiberal tendencies achieves an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but falls short of the two-thirds majority required to revise the Constitution. It is tasked with forming a government and enjoys parliamentary support commensurate with its absolute majority gained in the elections.
• Following legislative elections, a party with illiberal tendencies achieves a relative majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Attempts to form a majority coalition without this party fail. Therefore, said party is tasked with forming a government on its own. Lacking an absolute majority, it must seek, on a case-by-case basis, the support of other parties to pass legislation.

• Following legislative elections, a party with illiberal tendencies achieves a relative majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Attempts to form a majority coalition without this party fail. Said party then enters into a coalition agreement with one or more other parties, thereby enabling the formation of a government with an absolute majority. The ministerial portfolios are allocated among the coalition partners. The stability of the executive power depends on the cohesion of the parliamentary majority. While the government as a whole does not exhibit illiberal tendencies, some ministerial portfolios are held by members of the party with illiberal tendencies, granting them a degree of influence (more or less significant, depending on the allocation of ministerial posts to that party).

   

The hypothesis in which a party with illiberal tendencies obtains the two-thirds majority required to revise the Constitution is explicitly excluded from the scope of the stress test project. This exclusion aims to limit the analysis to those hypotheses that fall within the existing constitutional framework under which a party with illiberal tendencies has no possibility of amending the Constitution.

The erosion of democratic values around the world

Within the European Union, where democracy and the rule of law are often considered established principles, some member states are experiencing a growing erosion of these principles. Poland and Hungary are frequently cited as examples, but a questioning of democratic and rule-of-law standards can also be observed in other legal systems worldwide.

Democratic regressions usually occur gradually, so there is no real turning point, but rather a continuous decline in fundamental values, particularly through the degradation of the independence of the judiciary, the takeover of the media, or the weakening of civil society and critical voices.

Acting before an institutional crisis occurs

As the President of the Chamber explains, this project aims to answer questions “at a time when the issue is not yet urgent”, while Luxembourg’s democratic institutions are not facing an immediate crisis.

A stress test allows for a preventive assessment of their robustness in order to identify potential vulnerabilities before they are put to the test.

The aim is therefore to encourage reflection on possible developments within the institutional framework and, if necessary, to consider adjustments before the end of the legislative term.

The project is based on the drafting of thematic scientific research papers and a summarizing final report entitled “La résilience des institutions démocratiques face au glissement autoritaire” (The resilience of the democratic institutions in the face of an authoritarian shift).

The thematic research papers are structured according to the following research plan:

1. The resilience of the mechanisms for protecting the fundamental rights enshrined in international law

• The protection of fundamental rights through international law: Luxembourg’s protection mechanisms

• The protection of fundamental rights through international law: the role of the Court of Justice of the European Union in protecting the rule of law

• The protection of fundamental rights through international law: the role of the European Court of Human Rights

2. The resilience of the balance of institutional powers guaranteed by the Constitution

2.1. Separation and balance of powers in the event of an authoritarian drift

2.2. The legislative power

• The law as an instrument for an authoritarian drift

• The legal framework for the election of Members of Parliament

• The political opposition

2.3. The executive power

• The legal framework applicable to appointment, dismissal and disciplinary measures in the public service

• The governmentʼs supervisory authority over municipalities

• The regime of the state of emergency

2.4. The judicial power

• The independence of the judicial power in the face of an authoritarian drift: the independence of judges

• The independence of the judicial power in the face of an authoritarian drift: the independence of the public prosecutorʼs office from political power in the prosecution of crimes

• The access to justice

• The constitutional review of laws

3. The resilience of societal counter-powers

• The counter-powers in the defence of the democratic debate (press and media, sciences and research institutions, arts and cultural institutions)

• The counter-powers in the defence of human rights (civil society – associations, trade unions, bar associations, bodies defending fundamental rights)

The Scientific Unit of the Chamber of Deputies has been tasked by the Conference of Presidents with coordinating this scientific study which is guided by the values of transparency, independence, integrity and scientific accuracy.

In addition to the Scientific Unitʼs own researchers, the implementation of the stress test relies on the involvement of researchers from the University of Luxembourg and practitioners of Luxembourgish law, as well as foreign researchers specializing in public law.

This academic variety strengthens the validity of the analysis which, at the same time, remains firmly anchored in Luxembourgʼs institutional context.

The thematic research papers will be published gradually throughout 2026 and followed by a final report presenting the main findings and lessons learnt from the work.

An event bringing together Members of Parliament, institutional actors, academics and the general public will be organised in early 2027 in order to present the results of the stress test and, more broadly, to nurture the democratic debate on the protection of democratic institutions.